Stocks & Stockings:

How Hemlines and Heels Can Foretell The Economy’s Health

By: Sara Vargas

Photo Credit: Pinterest

That seven-letter word, it starts with an E, and almost always ends on a ‘why’; Economy. It has peered over voters’ shoulders as they carefully calculated whose box they’d check off: Kamala Harris or Donald Trump? Who is smarter? Whose concept of a plan was better? Decisions, decisions, decisions. One problem- most voters probably do not fully comprehend the full extent of economics. A three-question survey was conducted by The Global Financial Literacy Excellence Center to gauge how well Americans understand basic financial principles such as inflation, stocks, and interest rates. The GFLEC reported that as of 2024, less than half of Americans got all three questions right. If that is the case, what is an effective way to understand what a good or bad economic climate looks like in the first place? Eight-dollar cartons of eggs at Whole Foods? A hundred bucks for a full tank of gas? Maybe I’m not a Wall Street Journal columnist, but I do know to start living frugally when I see a fashion girlie trading in her kitten heels for six-inch Blahniks. On par with societal fads, fashion trends tend to juxtapose the economic state of the country. Think the Gilded Age! Think Gossip Girl! If our money is down, our funny is up! I know that if I were to declare bankruptcy, I’d rather do it with a Birkin in hand! 

All jokes aside, it’s a simple philosophy: be as gaudy as possible when your credit is not and show off your $80 plain tee in a statement of quiet luxury. There are many theories that tie shifts in fashion trends to economic fluctuations. The ‘High Heel Index’, created by former IBM consumer products researcher, Trevor Davis, has been a pretty accurate measure, so far, of the state of the economy. According to Davis, the taller the heel, the more bad news for the economy. At the moment, we are doing pretty well. The Bureau of Economic Analysis and Department of Commerce show that inflation is slowing down, the Gross Domestic Product rate is up by 2.8%, and unemployment is under 4%. That being said, Vogue’s top shoe picks for the fall/winter of 2024 mainly include shoes with a modest heel or no heel at all. A good omen for the state of our economy and feet. 

Similar theories such as economist George W. Taylor’s ‘Hemline Index’ claim that shorter hemlines are a good sign, while falling hemlines are indicative of an economic fall. Similarly, the post-9/11 ‘Lipstick Index’ gauged the socio-economic status based on lipstick sales and proved itself to be somewhat accurate in forecasting the country’s economic condition.

It’s amusing to look back at trends through history and see how much they were influenced by the ongoing financial circumstances, but determining the economy’s health is far more complex than taking rising sales of maxi dresses as a sign to invest. If you do not have a finance bro at your disposal to ask about economy jargon, do not fret! There are much better ways to educate yourself on the principles of finance. Sites such as Investopedia or NerdWallet are great resources for brushing up on your understanding of economics- they’ve been a real lifesaver when cramming for my financial literacy class quizzes. Being chic and being well-informed on financial basics go hand-in-hand. Behind it all I bet Carrie Bradshaw had a secret stock account funding her designer bag addiction. 

Photo Credit: Pinterest